Kenya is turning to Zambia for a major maize supply as concerns over domestic production deepen, with a new agreement providing for the import of up to 540,000 tonnes of white, Grade A, non-GMO maize.
The agreement was signed on September 9 between Zambia’s Food Reserve Agency (FRA) and Kenya-based Baita Trading Limited in Lusaka. The maize will be delivered in six batches, with five shipments of 100,000 tonnes each and a final shipment of 40,000 tonnes.
The deal comes as Kenya faces a projected shortage of about 5.4 million 90-kilogramme bags, equivalent to about 486,000 tonnes, by the end of September following poor production in several major growing areas. Earlier government estimates also pointed to a much wider national supply gap, prompting efforts to secure additional grain from neighbouring countries.
For Kenya, the Zambian agreement provides access to a substantial volume of white maize at a time when domestic supplies are under pressure. The country relies heavily on maize for both household consumption and livestock feed, while rising grain prices have already increased pressure on consumers and millers.
The agreement also illustrates how the shortage is creating opportunities within Africa's regional grain market. Zambia recorded a bumper maize harvest of more than 5.1 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, leaving the country with significant supplies available for export. Zambian authorities have been encouraging traders to find regional markets for the surplus rather than allowing increased production to translate into storage and market pressures at home.
Zambia's government sees maize exports as more than a way of clearing excess stocks. The country is targeting annual maize production of 10 million tonnes by 2031, with higher output expected to support both domestic food security and agricultural exports. Its agriculture ministry has also reported that the 2026/27 food balance indicates an overall cereal surplus.
The commercial structure of the Kenya deal is also notable. Baita Trading is a private Kenyan buyer rather than a direct representative of the Kenyan government. The price will be determined at the beginning of each shipment according to prevailing regional market conditions, meaning the final value of the contract will depend on prices when each tranche is delivered.
The agreement follows earlier discussions in Zambia over supplying Kenya with much larger volumes. In late August, Zambian authorities were reported to be considering exports of about 10.8 million 90-kg bags, after Kenya indicated a potential requirement of up to 25 million bags. The signed 540,000-tonne agreement therefore represents a concrete first tranche rather than the full volume Kenya may ultimately seek.
For Zambia's farmers, the development creates a new outlet for increased production. For Kenya, it offers another source of supply as the country works to prevent a poor harvest from translating into even tighter food markets.
More broadly, the deal points to a growing role for intra-African agricultural trade in balancing food surpluses and deficits. Rather than treating food security as a purely national production challenge, countries can use regional markets to move grain from areas with stronger harvests to those facing shortages.
NBF Insight
The Kenya-Zambia maize deal shows what a more connected African food system could look like: Zambia has grain to sell, while Kenya needs grain to fill a supply gap. The bigger opportunity is building the infrastructure, standards, storage, financing, and cross-border systems that allow those two realities to connect efficiently. Regional trade cannot replace domestic production, but it can make Africa's food system considerably more resilient when weather disrupts one country's harvest.
