Tunisia could lose the equivalent of 6.4% of its GDP by 2050 if worsening water scarcity is not addressed, with at least 30% of agricultural jobs at risk as climate and water stress increasingly threaten production, according to the World Bank.
The warning comes in the World Bank’s latest Tunisia Economic Monitor, titled “Tunisia’s Water Challenge: From Scarcity to Resilience.” The report identifies water security as an important determinant of Tunisia’s economic growth, employment and living standards as climate change and rising demand place additional pressure on already limited water resources.
Tunisia currently has only about 380 cubic metres of renewable freshwater available per person each year, placing the country well below the international threshold for absolute water scarcity. The World Bank says climate change and growing demand are expected to intensify the pressure, while previous improvements in rainfall and reservoir levels provide only temporary relief rather than resolving the underlying structural problem.
Agriculture sits at the centre of the risk. The sector employs about 14% of Tunisia’s national workforce and up to half of rural workers, making water availability directly relevant to employment as well as food production. Without stronger adaptation and water management, the World Bank estimates that water and climate stress could eliminate at least 30% of agricultural jobs by mid-century and significantly reduce agricultural output.
The consequences would extend beyond farms. Lower agricultural production will affect agro-processing and other businesses dependent on agricultural raw materials, while water shortages could also constrain tourism, industry and other water-intensive activities. The World Bank therefore frames water security as an economic issue capable of influencing the country's broader growth trajectory.
The pressure is emerging as Tunisia's economy attempts to maintain a modest recovery. Economic growth reached 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, but the World Bank projects growth of 2.3% for 2026 and an average of 2.1% in 2027–2028. A worsening water constraint could make sustaining that recovery more difficult, particularly through its impact on agriculture and rural employment.
The World Bank is calling for long-term investment and institutional reforms alongside infrastructure. Tunisia's Plan Eau 2050 envisages around $900 million in annual investment through mid-century. The report recommends modernising the Water Code, developing a framework for treated wastewater reuse, improving irrigation management, reducing losses in water networks, expanding digitalisation and improving the financial sustainability and performance of water-service providers.
Tunisia has already begun investing in this direction. In March 2026, the World Bank approved a $332.5 million first phase of the Tunisia Water Security and Resilience Program, including a $124 million irrigation project aimed at improving irrigation services, raising crop yields and helping farmers adopt climate-smart technologies. The programme is expected to directly benefit nearly 4,000 farmers through improved irrigation services and another 9,000 through agricultural extension and value-addition support.
NBF Insight
Tunisia's water crisis shows why water security is agricultural infrastructure.
When water becomes unreliable, the first impact may appear on farms through lower yields, abandoned production or declining rural employment. But the economic shock does not stop there. Less agricultural output means less raw material for processors, weaker demand across rural supply chains and greater pressure on food imports.
For Tunisia, the challenge is therefore not just finding more water. It is getting more economic value from every unit of water through efficient irrigation, better crop choices, wastewater reuse, improved infrastructure and stronger water governance.
The World Bank's warning puts a long-term number on the cost of inaction: 6.4% of GDP by 2050. The agricultural cost could be equally significant, with at least three in every ten agricultural jobs potentially exposed to water and climate stress. The policy challenge now is to ensure that water scarcity becomes a driver for smarter agricultural investment rather than a permanent brake on Tunisia's rural economy.
