Nigeria’s annual wheat production has risen from about 120,000 metric tonnes to 420,000 tonnes, according to the Federal Government, which attributes the increase to improved access to subsidised farm inputs under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP).
Prof. Ademola Adenle, Senior Special Adviser on Agriculture and Innovation to the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, disclosed the figures in an interview in Abuja. The programme is part of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and is designed to raise agricultural output by helping smallholder farmers access essential production inputs.
The reported figures represent a 250 percent increase over the previous 120,000-tonne baseline. The stated production levels show that output has increased by 300,000 tonnes, equivalent to 250 percent of the earlier figure.
Under NAGS-AP, farmers receive support through agro-dealers, including fertilisers, improved seeds, agrochemicals and extension services. The approach is intended to address input constraints that limit yields and discourage farmers from expanding production. Wheat is among the crops targeted by the government as it seeks to improve domestic food supplies and reduce dependence on imported staples.
The latest announcement follows the government’s 2025/2026 dry-season wheat farming programme, launched under NAGS-AP in November 2025. That initiative targeted 80,000 registered farmers nationwide, with the government projecting an output value of about ₦160 billion (about US$120.3 million). The programme forms part of a broader effort to increase production through dry-season cultivation and more reliable access to farm inputs.
The reported production increase is significant for Nigeria’s food system. Wheat is a major raw material for flour used in bread, noodles, pasta, biscuits and other processed foods. Greater domestic output could create additional opportunities for farmers, aggregators, millers and other value-chain businesses, while helping reduce exposure to international commodity prices and foreign-exchange pressures.
However, the new figure does not mean Nigeria has achieved wheat self-sufficiency. The government’s announcement did not specify the production year covered, total harvested area, average yield per hectare, or number of farmers responsible for the reported output. Those details are important for assessing whether the increase reflects higher yields, an expansion in cultivated land, or a combination of both.
Access to farmland also remains a structural challenge. Adenle identified Nigeria’s Land Use Act of 1978 and existing land-access arrangements as obstacles to agricultural expansion, particularly for smallholders. He said many farmers cultivate between 0.5 and two hectares, limiting their ability to expand operations and benefit from economies of scale. The government is considering reforms covering land access and other parts of the agricultural value chain, including production, processing, distribution and marketing.
For wheat farmers, sustained progress will depend on more than the distribution of subsidised inputs. Reliable irrigation, suitable seed varieties, timely planting, mechanisation, access to finance and dependable markets will all influence whether the reported gains can be maintained across seasons.
NBF Insight
Nigeria’s reported rise in wheat production is an encouraging signal for domestic food production, but the more important test is whether the increase can be sustained and scaled.
Input support can help farmers overcome immediate production constraints. Yet wheat expansion also requires dependable dry-season water, suitable production zones, access to land and a market that rewards farmers for growing the crop. Without these complementary conditions, gains achieved in one season may be difficult to repeat.
The government should publish the production data behind the 420,000-tonne estimate, including cultivated area, yields, participating farmers and the season covered. This would make it easier to measure the programme’s actual contribution and identify where further investment is needed.
For Nigeria, reducing wheat import dependence will require a consistent increase in productive capacity, not just a higher headline figure. The real milestone will be turning reported growth into reliable domestic supply for farmers, millers and consumers year after year.
