Kenya's milk supply is tightening as prolonged dry weather reduces pasture and fodder, leaving dairy farmers with lower yields and supermarkets with increasingly thin stocks of fresh milk.
The squeeze has become visible at retail level, with supermarkets in Nairobi, Kisumu and other parts of the country reporting empty or partially stocked shelves. Some retailers have begun limiting the quantity customers can purchase, with certain outlets restricting shoppers to just a few packets at a time.
The shortage is being felt further up the value chain. The Kenya Dairy Board said formal milk deliveries to processors fell 3.7%, from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July 2026. Preliminary indications point to another decline in August, although the full data was still being compiled.
For farmers, the problem starts with the deteriorating feed base. Delayed rains and prolonged dry conditions have reduced pasture and fodder availability in key milk-producing areas, while the cost of purchased animal feed remains high.
Some farmers are reporting milk yields falling from around 7–9 litres to 4–5 litres per cow per day as pasture deteriorates. In parts of the country, livestock keepers have also been moving animals in search of pasture and water. The National Drought Management Authority reported that 52.2% of monitored arid and semi-arid counties recorded milk production below their long-term average in July.
The impact is now reaching consumers. In Kisumu, retailers have reported higher prices and limited availability, while some supermarkets have stopped selling milk by the carton to prevent a small number of shoppers from buying up available stocks. In Nairobi, some outlets have also reported missing brands and reduced deliveries.
The government is responding by looking beyond the immediate shortage of raw milk. Livestock Development Principal Secretary Jonathan Mueke said authorities are working with animal-feed manufacturers to identify areas with available feed and move it to farmers through cooperatives. The government is also preparing to allow duty-free imports of yellow maize for animal feed, aimed at increasing feed availability and easing pressure on livestock producers.
Another problem is emerging within the dairy marketing system. Government officials say some farmers are turning to brokers who offer better or faster payments than cooperatives, reducing the volume of milk reaching formal processors. The government is therefore also examining cooperative pricing and governance, alongside measures to ensure farmers receive returns that keep them supplying the formal market.
The Kenya Dairy Board, however, describes the situation as a temporary supply constraint rather than a national collapse in milk availability. Pasteurised milk has been more affected, while long-life milk remains comparatively easier to find. The Board expects the October–December rains to restore pasture and fodder availability and support a recovery in production.
The government is also considering a longer-term milk stabilisation mechanism that could allow surplus milk during high-production periods to be processed and stored for use when supplies fall. Such a system could reduce the repeated cycle of milk gluts, low farmer prices and subsequent shortages.
NBF Insight
Kenya's milk shortage shows how quickly a problem in the pasture can become a problem on the supermarket shelf. The immediate response may be more feed and better supply management, but the bigger challenge is building a dairy system that can withstand seasonal shocks. Better fodder production and storage, affordable feed, stronger farmer cooperatives, and the ability to preserve surplus milk could help Kenya move from reacting to shortages to managing supply more reliably.
