The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have warned that there is a 77% to 80% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the second half of 2026, raising concerns over food production across Southern and Eastern Africa.
According to the agencies, the anticipated weather pattern could significantly reduce rainfall during the November to March planting season in Southern Africa while intensifying already dry conditions across the Horn of Africa. The outlook has heightened concerns over crop yields, livestock production and food security in regions that remain highly vulnerable to climate shocks.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although global in origin, its effects vary across regions. In Southern Africa, El Niño is often linked to below-average rainfall, delayed planting and reduced harvests, while parts of the Horn of Africa may experience prolonged drought and worsening water shortages.
The FAO and WFP have urged governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners to strengthen preparedness measures before the planting season begins. Recommended actions include expanding climate monitoring, increasing the availability of drought-tolerant seed varieties, improving irrigation infrastructure and scaling up early warning systems to help farmers adapt to changing weather conditions.
The warning comes as many African countries continue to recover from previous climate extremes, including droughts and floods that disrupted agricultural production, displaced rural communities and increased food prices. Another significant El Niño event could place additional pressure on food systems already facing the combined impacts of climate change, conflict and economic uncertainty.
NBF Insight
Climate forecasts are becoming as important to agriculture as fertiliser, improved seeds and finance. The FAO and WFP warning highlights the growing need for African countries to shift from reacting to climate disasters to preparing for them.
Investments in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, weather forecasting and resilient crop varieties will determine how well Africa's food systems withstand future climate shocks. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, resilience, not just production, will define agricultural success across the continent.
